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Creators/Authors contains: "Nystrom, Robert G"

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  1. Abstract A tropical cyclone (TC) can generally be divided into three regions: inner core with vigorous convection, intermediate region with intermittent convection, and far outer region with less convective activity. The different physics in these three regions suggest correspondingly different wind structure models. In this study, we combine the inner‐core wind model from Tao et al. (2023,https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl104583, T23), the outer wind model from Emanuel (2004,https://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Energetics_Structure.pdf, E04), and a transition model of a modified Rankine vortex to create a new fast and analytical model for the complete radial structure of the TC wind field. The T23 model captures inner‐core wind variation with small errors, while the E04 model reproduces the broad outer wind structure at large radii well. The new wind model combines the strengths from both T23 and E04 models without the need for statistical fitting, showing great potential in reproducing the full range of simulated and observed TC winds. 
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  2. Abstract The dynamics of an asymmetric rainband complex leading into secondary eyewall formation (SEF) are examined in a simulation of Hurricane Matthew (2016), with particular focus on the tangential wind field evolution. Prior to SEF, the storm experiences an axisymmetric broadening of the tangential wind field as a stationary rainband complex in the downshear quadrants intensifies. The axisymmetric acceleration pattern that causes this broadening is an inward-descending structure of positive acceleration nearly 100 km wide in radial extent and maximizes in the low levels near 50 km radius. Vertical advection from convective updrafts in the downshear-right quadrant largely contributes to the low-level acceleration maximum, while the broader inward-descending pattern is due to horizontal advection within stratiform precipitation in the downshear-left quadrant. This broad slantwise pattern of positive acceleration is due to a mesoscale descending inflow (MDI) that is driven by midlevel cooling within the stratiform regions and draws absolute angular momentum inward. The MDI is further revealed by examining the irrotational component of the radial velocity, which shows the MDI extending downwind into the upshear-left quadrant. Here, the MDI connects with the boundary layer, where new convective updrafts are triggered along its inner edge; these new upshear-left updrafts are found to be important to the subsequent axisymmetrization of the low-level tangential wind maximum within the incipient secondary eyewall. 
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  3. Abstract Ensemble‐based data assimilation of radar observations across inner‐core regions of tropical cyclones (TCs) in tandem with satellite all‐sky infrared (IR) radiances across the TC domain improves TC track and intensity forecasts. This study further investigates potential enhancements in TC track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts via assimilation of all‐sky microwave (MW) radiances using Hurricane Harvey (2017) as an example. Assimilating Global Precipitation Measurement constellation all‐sky MW radiances in addition to GOES‐16 all‐sky IR radiances reduces the forecast errors in the TC track, rapid intensification (RI), and peak intensity compared to assimilating all‐sky IR radiances alone, including a 24‐hr increase in forecast lead‐time for RI. Assimilating all‐sky MW radiances also improves Harvey's hydrometeor fields, which leads to improved forecasts of rainfall after Harvey's landfall. This study indicates that avenues exist for producing more accurate forecasts for TCs using available yet underutilized data, leading to better warnings of and preparedness for TC‐associated hazards in the future. 
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